Sears Starts Black Friday Early, On Wrong Day

This Saturday, on Halloween, Sears is launching a campaign called “Black Friday Now,” with “doorbuster” deals on Christmas trees, work boots, diamond-stud earrings and other select items. The deals will take place every Saturday until Christmas.

The retailer is saying that the move is a response to customers wanting deep-discount deals before the traditional Black Friday, which falls on the day after Thanksgiving. But we’re thinking it’s more of a move to combat Sears’ dismal sales results.

Are Holiday Sales Really Looking Up?

Most industry watchers out there predict that this year’s holiday season won’t be as gloomy as last year’s. A recent Bloomberg article puts sales growth at 1.5% during the period.

Part of the good news is that TJX Cos. raised its sales expectations for the fourth quarter. But since TJX is one of the rare over performers in the recession, is that really anything to be surprised about?

Prepare For a Flat Holiday

Most predictions we are seeing out there call for flat or slight negative drop in this year’s holiday sales. The National Retail Federation just came out with its prediction, a 1% decrease.

The drop might not be as bad as last year, but we still think it’s extreme, considering the industry will still suffer a decline over the major 3.4% fall the NRF calculated after 2008’s numbers came in.

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas

[Editor's Note: Ian Ritter is taking a much deserved vacation over the next week, and GlobeSt.com retail reporter Debra Hazel is filling in for him on Counter Culture. Please be nice.]

Given that we’re not even past Labor Day yet, it’s a bit tough to think ahead to the holiday selling season. But yesterday’s Women’s Wear Daily reported that many retail observers expect a tough season.

Some expect sales to be flat at best – even though comparisons will be with the abysmal holiday 2008 numbers. Others are a bit more hopeful, given last year’s weakness.

What are your expectations for the holiday selling season? What will be the top seller? Will Sony’s introduction of the “Daily” reader, a competitor to Amazon’s Kindle, boost electronics sales? Or is it just too soon to tell?

December Sales: Not Looking So Good

Most retailers don’t post their official December sales results until tomorrow, but early data coming in doesn’t look all that promising.

According to reports on MasterCard’s latest SpendingPulse survey, which tracks transaction data, apparel and department-store sales fell 18.3% in December.

Can Deep Discounts Save Retailers?

We’ve come across two articles this morning discussing how retailers will have huge sales this month to lessen the impact of what might be one of the worst holiday seasons ever. A shocker. We know.

In both reports, analysts are saying that the likelihood is dim that these discounts will improve the retail landscape. More store closures and bankruptcies are forecast.

Black Friday Not Enough?

Though most accounts considered Black Friday’s retail sales a success, the holiday-shopping day is not likely to save November’s sales results, according to at least one report.

In fact, Thomson Reuters is expecting a 2.5% same-store sales drop to come in from last month, the worst period since the organizations began collecting this data in 2000. If what is often billed as the year’s biggest shopping day isn’t enough, it seems as though we’re in pretty big trouble this holiday season.

Restaurants Prepare for a Tough Holiday

As retail centers brace for slower holiday traffic, so are their eatery tenants, says this WSJ article.

Sure, what chains aren’t suffering, restaurants or not? But one analyst, Oppenheimer & Co.’s Matthew DiFrisco points out something we hadn’t fully considered: “They live off the flow of traffic going to lifestyle centers and malls, and are trying to intercept you while you’re out shopping.”

At Least Taubman Has a Good Attitude

Mall owner Taubman Centers recently put out its annual Black Friday survey, and it almost sounds hopeful. About 8,000 people responded to the online poll at its malls’ websites, and nowhere is there mention of a recession.

While only 9% said they would spend more than last year’s Black Friday, an impressive 60% said they planned to spend the same amount. On average people will spend $400 on the biggest holiday shopping day, while 42% said they’d continue to shop through the rest of the weekend.

This Holiday’s All About Sales

People might shop this holiday season after all – if retailers keep slashing their prices. This BusinessWeek article says that Old Navy has pairs of gloves for $1, and even Saks has slashed prices on some items by almost half.

Says retail analyst Jennifer Black: “”I have never seen any environment like this. The fight is on … They are all scared.”