Prepare For a Flat Holiday

Most predictions we are seeing out there call for flat or slight negative drop in this year’s holiday sales. The National Retail Federation just came out with its prediction, a 1% decrease.

The drop might not be as bad as last year, but we still think it’s extreme, considering the industry will still suffer a decline over the major 3.4% fall the NRF calculated after 2008’s numbers came in.

Rooms Ain’t Spendy at ICSC’s RECon

If there’s not a very big showing at next year’s International Council of Shopping Centers RECon show in Las Vegas, it’s probably won’t be because of high hotel rates. The organization’s travel agency recently released convention-attendee hotel rates, and they’re pretty darn cheap.

The catch (there’s always one, right?) is that you have to book early, as many of these prices will go up this month. But the good thing is that you can cancel your room up to two weeks before your reservation.

Big Changes Ahead at ICSC’s RECon in Vegas

We just saw a memo sent out to International of Council Shopping Centers members describing changes at its RECon convention next year. There are a few big highlights.

The show will have no events in the Las Vegas Hilton or the North Hall of the Las Vegas Convention Center next year. All leasing mall, trade show and educational-session events will now get consolidated into the South and Central halls of the convention center.

Retailers Say Rent Relief Is Working

Another interesting article appeared today on rent relief at shopping centers.

Apparently Starbucks has had success in receiving concessions from landlords, in its quest to lower rents by as much as 25% at some of its locations. Additionally, jeweler Zale Corp. earlier this week joined the ranks of retailers looking to catch breaks, and we wrote about Charming Shoppes’ strategy yesterday.

RECon Report: What Is Going On???

OK. Things at the International Council of Shopping Centers RECon conference in Las Vegas are getting a little confusion. One person tells us that retailers are getting rent reductions and someone else says that they’re not budging on giving concessions. Someone says the recession is going to be over by the end of the year, and someone else will say that the commercial real estate industry will feel pain through 2012.

Our head is spinning, and it’s not just the heat.

RECon Report: Quality Meetings Trump Quantity

This year at the International Council of Shopping Centers RECon conference is different from any we’ve ever been to. Of course, we’re not a serious industry veteran (hey we’re in our 30s…give us a break), but it’s been about seven years now.

Things are definitely slower here, but it’s not all doom and gloom. John Bemis, Jones Lang LaSalle’s director of leasing and development, says that Maurice’s has aggressive expansion plans and is targeting 50 new stores this year. The firm also has a report out saying that buyers looking at distressed assets will have plenty of opportunities and lower gas prices, coupled with the stimulus package, could increase consumer confidence, giving retailers a sales boost. For their part, Jones Lang has 2,000 meetings in just over two days, Bemis reports.

Ray Brunt, a founding partner of Columbus, OH-based Stanbery Development tells us that though things are quiet right now, he is having “quality appointments.” Stanbery also has the best booth giveaway we’ve seen so far: They have swine flu influenced face masks with the works “rent relief” crossed out.

Madison Marquette is doing a lot of cool stuff, including an “American Idol” kind of contest for aspiring retail tenants. We’ll cover that more in depth later.

What else? Oh yeah…Sam Zell is kind of crazy. You can see what I wrote about him on my Twitter feed.

RECon Report: MySpace Launching Stores

We sat in on the first session of the International Could of Shopping Centers RECon conference and were shocked to find out that social networking firms, such as MySpace, could possibly open stores in malls. This intelligence was supplied by Kate Ancketil, managing director of London-based of GDR Creative Intelligence.

Over in the UK, there is already a place called the Hub Culture Pavilion where people can network in person as if they’re online. So it’s a situation where something faceless like Facebook becomes a personal experience.

What Are Your RECon Expectations?

That time of year is coming upon us again. Next month is RECon, the International Council of Shopping Centers annual convention – the biggest event in the retail real estate world.

But we have a feeling, like conventions across the country, attendance won’t be as big as years past, like 2007, when attendance hit 50,000. Michael Kercheval, ICSC’s president, said a at a conference in Florida yesterday that pre-registered attendance so far this year is not that much lower than in 2008.

You Could Get a Deal in Vegas This Year

We promise that this isn’t a promotional message for ICSC’s Spring Convention in Las Vegas this May, but we couldn’t let this go unmentioned.

While checking our Crackberry yesterday evening, we received an email telling us that our room rate for the convention had been reduced by $90(!!!), and it wasn’t even that high to begin with. (We swear it wasn’t, Counter Culture bosses!)

Is Now the Time for Independent Tenants?

We attended the ICSC New York National Conference yesterday, and the mood was, uh, cautious at best. One the one hand, you had ICSC executives promising members good hotel deals at the Spring Convention in Vegas, on the other hand, J. Crew CEO Mickey Drexler, head of one of the only apparel chains have current success, was far from optimistic.

But we did find one common theme of hope shared by the few developers we talked to on the trade floor.